AI for futures thinking
How might generative AI play a role in futures work?
In today’s post I don’t mean “what’s the role of generative AI in the future?” but instead how might the futuring practive might use such software in its forecasting work.
The futures community has already been discussing this topic, unsurprisingly. We’ve been thinking about the meta future of futuring in general for a while. Some of us have been considering how various digital technologies might impact the field: big data and data analytics, simulations, concept maps, and more. Naturally generative AI is of interest.
Here I’d like to share some of my ideas. I’ve broken these down into different use cases, then added text and visual examples. I’ve also made a point of using multiple AI tools, to show some diversity of possibilities. Perhaps what the futures community actually does with LLMs can be of use to other professions.
1: Brainstorming and drafting We can use textbots (ChatGPT, Bard, Bing, etc) to used to help generate text for scenarios and other futures writing. I don’t mean finished products, but language to respond to, bounce off of, and chew on. This could be useful for people just starting to think about a futures topic.
For example, I asked Bing (in the Edge browser) the basic question “How might air travel change by the year 2050?” It thought about it, then offered this response:
Air travel is one of the most popular and convenient modes of transportation in the world, but it also has a significant environmental impact. Many experts and innovators are working on ways to make air travel more sustainable, efficient, and enjoyable in the future. Here are some of the possible changes that could happen by the year 2050:
Hydrogen-powered planes. Hydrogen is a clean and abundant fuel that can be used to power aircraft engines without emitting carbon dioxide or other harmful pollutants. Hydrogen-powered planes could also carry more passengers and fly longer distances than conventional planes. Some researchers estimate that hydrogen-powered planes could enter the market as soon as 20351.
New wing designs. The shape and size of the wings affect the aerodynamics and fuel efficiency of the aircraft. Some of the new wing designs that are being explored include blended wing bodies, which integrate the wing and the fuselage into a single unit, delta wings, which are triangular and allow for faster speeds, and flying V wings, which have passenger cabins on both sides of a V-shaped aircraft. These new designs could offer up to 20% more fuel efficiency than current planes2.
Futuristic cabin design. The interior of the plane could also undergo some radical transformations to enhance the comfort and experience of the passengers. Some of the possible features include transparent ceilings that allow for panoramic views of the sky, virtual reality rooms that provide immersive entertainment, double-decker economy seats that offer more space and privacy, and biometric scanners that replace boarding passes and passports34.
Air taxis. For short-distance travel, air taxis could be a viable alternative to road vehicles. Air taxis are small, electrically-powered aircraft that can take off and land vertically, avoiding the need for runways. They could also fly autonomously or be controlled remotely, reducing human error and congestion. Air taxis could provide fast and convenient transportation for urban areas and remote locations2.
That’s a nice sketch. People doing futures work could dig into each point.
Notice the numbers? They are pointers to live web sources, listed at the end of Bing’s reply:
Learn more:
4. bbc.com
On top of that, Bing suggested some more questions to explore:
How will hydrogen-powered planes work?
What are the benefits of blended wing bodies?
Will air travel become more expensive in the future?
I asked ChatGPT the same question. Its quick response:
By the year 2050, air travel is likely to undergo significant changes due to advances in technology, environmental concerns, and shifts in passenger expectations. Here are some potential ways air travel might change:
Sustainable Aviation: As concerns about climate change and environmental impact grow, there will be a strong focus on making air travel more sustainable. Airlines may increasingly invest in renewable fuels, biofuels, and electric aircraft to reduce carbon emissions. This could lead to the development of more efficient and eco-friendly airplanes.
Supersonic Travel: Supersonic air travel, which allows planes to travel faster than the speed of sound, may become more commercially viable. Advances in technology could bring about quieter and more fuel-efficient supersonic planes, reducing flight times significantly.
Hyperloop and High-Speed Rail Integration: While not strictly air travel, hyperloop systems and high-speed rail networks may complement air travel, especially for shorter distances. These modes of transportation could offer faster and more sustainable options for regional and intercity travel.
Autonomous Aircraft: Self-flying or autonomous aircraft could become more prevalent. Automation technology may improve flight safety, reduce human errors, and optimize air traffic management, leading to smoother and more efficient flights.
Enhanced In-Flight Experience: With advances in technology, passengers can expect a more immersive and personalized in-flight experience. Virtual reality entertainment, augmented reality displays, and interactive features could make long flights more enjoyable.
Health and Sanitation Measures: Air travel may incorporate more stringent health and sanitation measures, building on the lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. This could include better air filtration systems, contactless check-ins, and enhanced cleaning protocols.
Improved Connectivity: In-flight Wi-Fi is likely to become more widespread and faster, enabling passengers to stay connected throughout their journey. Real-time communication and access to the internet will be standard features.
Space Tourism: Commercial space travel might become a reality, allowing wealthy tourists to experience suborbital or orbital flights for leisure purposes. Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are already working on such ventures.
Smarter Airports: Airports could become more efficient and passenger-friendly through the use of advanced technologies like biometrics, facial recognition, and AI-powered systems for baggage handling and security checks.
Shift in Travel Patterns: Changes in global demographics, economics, and travel trends may lead to shifts in popular travel destinations. Emerging economies and off-the-beaten-path locations might see increased tourism.
It's important to note that these predictions are speculative, and the actual changes in air travel by 2050 will depend on numerous factors, including technological advancements, regulatory decisions, and societal preferences. However, the industry's focus on sustainability and innovation is likely to shape the future of air travel significantly.
As usual, ChatGPT offers more texts, and many more ideas. Between the two of them there is a lot to think about, from a range of subtopics.
2: Viualizations We can use image creators (DALL-E, Midjourney, etc) to generate images of possible futures, using prompt engineering to shape and iterate results.
I put this idea to a couple of such tools, "A coastal city after 2 meters of sea level rise." DALL-E offered several responses, starting with this:
I *think* this shows a bunch of makeshift shelters (the blue tarps) after a threatening sea level rise (waving water to right).
The second image offered by DALL-E presented a somewhat different vista:
Here we see a city being swamped, with isolated buildings and trees, rather than one which was relocating.
Craiyon offered its own range of views. Some were aerial images of bigger, more technologically advanced cities surrounded by water:
Others were more mysterious, even gloomy:
As with AI-generated text, we can edit these results in appropriate applications, then use results in presentations, videos, web pages, etc.
3: Finding mainstream future narratives For now the giant AI services strive to be noncontroversial, offering inoffensive text and images, shorn of problematic output. One side effect is that the results are very consensus-oriented, very mainstream.
I find this to be very useful in my work as like to suss out the official story for a given client or situation, which might not be formally presented or even obvious. I try to grapple with it, seeing how well it works, what its blind spots are. I also want to offer alternative stories about the future; knowing what the default is come in handy.
Take the future of air travel examples above. Some themes really stand out: sustainability, technological advancement, alternative vehicles. If I were working with an air travel client, such as a pilot group or an airport, this would be vital to know. I can also press on some points, like challenges to the hydrogen flight idea, or the lack of airships.
4: Chatbot as interlocutor One underappreciated capacity textbots have is to act as a role playing partner. I like asking one to simulate a person in a hypothetical future.
For example, here’s a prompt I just ran past ChatGPT:
I would like you to role play an unemployed man, who lost his construction job after that field turned extensively to robotics. I will role play a journalist, interviewing him about his experience and hopes. I will ask you questions; you will reply in the persona of that unemployed person.
Dear unemployed man: what are you doing for money now?
ChatGPT responded:
Dear journalist,
Thank you for your question. Since losing my construction job, I've been actively seeking temporary work and odd jobs to make ends meet. I've done some freelance handyman work, helped friends and neighbors with small home improvement projects, and taken up short-term gigs whenever I can find them. While it hasn't been easy, these opportunities have provided me with some income during this challenging time.
I've also been availing myself of unemployment benefits, which have been a lifeline to cover basic expenses. However, they are limited, and I'm constantly on the lookout for more stable employment.
I understand the importance of staying proactive and adaptable during this period of transition, and I'm doing my best to explore new avenues for earning income while I continue to search for a more sustainable long-term career path.
Thank you for asking about my current situation. It's important to share these experiences to raise awareness about the challenges faced by those impacted by job displacement due to technological advancements.
Best regards,
Unemployed Man
I followed up with “How do you feel about AI and robots, since they cost you your job?”
The bot responded:
As an unemployed individual who lost their job due to the increasing use of AI and robots in the construction industry, I have mixed feelings about this technological advancement. On one hand, I understand that AI and automation have the potential to improve efficiency, safety, and productivity in various industries, including construction. They can take on repetitive and dangerous tasks, making the workplace safer for human workers.
However, on the other hand, experiencing firsthand how AI and robots can displace human workers and change the job landscape can be disheartening. It's challenging not to feel a sense of loss and concern for the future, not only for myself but also for others in similar situations. Losing a job that I was passionate about and invested in for many years has been difficult to come to terms with.
While I recognize the benefits that AI and robots can bring, there's a part of me that wishes there were more balanced approaches to integrating these technologies, ensuring that they complement human workers rather than replacing them entirely. I also hope that as technology advances, more opportunities for retraining and upskilling will become available, allowing people like me to transition into new roles and industries.
Ultimately, my feelings about AI and robots are complex, as I'm navigating the personal impact it has had on my life while acknowledging the broader potential benefits and challenges that come with technological advancements in the workforce.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to express my thoughts and feelings on this matter.
Best regards,
Unemployed Man
And so on. I - we - did several more rounds.
There’s a lot to work with here. I’m curious about how calm the responses are; is that due to guardrails avoiding upsetting language or politically dissenting ideas? Did my identification as a journalist elicit polite replies, while identifying as some other type of person - a labor activist, say, or a nineteenth century Luddite - might have caused ChatGPT to write differently?
Personally, I can use this to help think through scenarios, especially by summoning up personas in my blind spots. I can also advise clients and audiences to use this role playing approach to develop their own thinking.
5: Chatbot as simulation facilitator We can expand the role-playing function into a more complex situation more than two represented people., like a role playing game GM.
I’ve been experimenting with this for a few months, inspired by Ethan Mollick, because I think the learning possibilities are great.
Here’s an example, starting with a detailed prompt to ChatGPT:
I want to do deliberate practice about how a nation responds to a climate crisis. You will simulate a detailed scenario in which I will am the nation's leader. You will fill the roles of different national representatives. You will ask for my response to in each step of the scenario and wait until you receive it. After getting my response, you will give me details of what the other actors do and say. You will grade my response and give me detailed feedback about what to do better. You will give me a harder scenario if I do well, and an easier one if I fail.
ChatGPT responds:
Sure, I'd be happy to engage in this deliberate practice scenario with you. As the nation's leader, you'll be responsible for making decisions and responding to various situations related to a climate crisis. I'll act as different national representatives and other stakeholders to interact with you. Let's start the scenario:
Scenario: Your nation is facing a severe climate crisis, with extreme weather events causing significant damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and the well-being of citizens. As the nation's leader, you must address the situation and propose a plan to mitigate the impacts of the crisis.
Step 1: Receive an Urgent Report from Scientists
You receive an urgent report from climate scientists warning about the escalating climate crisis and the urgent need for action to prevent further damage. The report highlights the increase in extreme weather events and their potential consequences for the nation's economy and environment.
What is your immediate response and plan of action?
(Note: Please provide your response, and I will then continue with the actions and responses of other stakeholders.)
OK, not a very detailed scenario, but a recognizable one, albeit basis. In that spirit I replied:
As national leader, I declare a climate emergency. I provide financial relief to populations most afflicted by the disaster. I also nationalize the oil industry in order to shut down all fossil fuel production and refinement.
ChatGPT cuts loose:
Response and Actions of Other Stakeholders:
Scientists and Environmental Activists:
The scientists and environmental activists applaud your declaration of a climate emergency and your focus on providing financial relief to affected populations. They see these actions as crucial steps in acknowledging the severity of the crisis and supporting those most impacted.
Citizens Affected by the Climate Crisis:
The citizens who are facing the immediate impacts of the climate crisis appreciate the financial relief provided by the government. They feel supported during this challenging time and see the nationalization of the oil industry as a significant step towards transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Opposition Parties and Some Industry Representatives:
Opposition parties express concerns about the nationalization of the oil industry, arguing that it could lead to economic instability and job losses in the short term. Some industry representatives also voice objections, stating that they were not consulted and urging for more gradual and inclusive measures.
International Community:
The international community takes note of your declaration of a climate emergency and actions to address the crisis. Some countries show support for your decisive actions, while others raise concerns about the potential impact on international trade and diplomacy.
Grade and Feedback:
Response Grade: A
Your response as the nation's leader demonstrates strong leadership and a swift and bold approach to address the climate crisis. Declaring a climate emergency and providing financial relief to affected populations show your commitment to prioritizing the well-being of citizens and acknowledging the urgency of the situation.
Nationalizing the oil industry to shut down fossil fuel production and refinement is a significant and ambitious step towards combating climate change. However, it's important to be prepared for potential challenges that may arise from this decision, such as economic repercussions and job losses in the short term. Engaging in further dialogue with industry stakeholders and implementing a well-planned transition strategy could help mitigate these concerns and ensure a smoother transition to renewable energy sources.
Your decision to prioritize the welfare of affected populations and take strong climate action resonates positively with scientists, environmental activists, and citizens. However, it's essential to engage in open communication with opposition parties and industry representatives to address their concerns and seek common ground.
Overall, your response demonstrates commendable leadership and a commitment to tackling the climate crisis head-on. As we move forward in this scenario, I'll provide you with more challenges to test your decision-making skills and adaptability. Keep up the excellent work!
Next Step: Addressing International Concerns
As the international community raises concerns about the impact of nationalizing the oil industry on international trade and diplomacy, they request a meeting with you to discuss your nation's climate actions and potential cooperation on global climate initiatives. How do you plan to respond to their concerns and what message do you want to convey during the meeting?
So consider what the bot just did. It accepted my input, fed it into the simulation, determined how it impacted things, then assessed the results even to the point of a traditional letter grade. Then it set up another round, offering a different query. Which I answered:
I agree to represent my nation in that meeting. The message I convey is: this is a global, existential crisis, and we need to place civilization on something like a war footing to address it.
The simulation continued:
Response and Actions of the International Community:
The international community acknowledges your willingness to participate in the meeting and appreciates your recognition of the global climate crisis as an existential threat. They are keen to hear more about your nation's plans and how you envision cooperation on a global scale.
International Community Response:
Several countries express support for your sense of urgency and comparison of the climate crisis to a war footing. They agree that concerted global action is essential to address the challenges posed by climate change effectively.
Some nations offer assistance in terms of technology transfer, renewable energy investments, and knowledge-sharing to support your nation's transition away from fossil fuels.
However, there are also concerns raised about potential disruptions in international trade and diplomatic relations resulting from the nationalization of the oil industry. They seek reassurances that your nation's actions will not have adverse effects on their economies.
Some countries propose forming a coalition of nations to work collectively on climate change solutions and initiatives, acknowledging that a united effort is more likely to yield meaningful results….
And so on. Looking back on the text, I want to ask for more details: metrics, national identities, technological developments, etc. You get the idea. As a futurist I can ask the chatbot to walk me through a scenario, within which I play a role.
6: Creating multiple futures A popular way of doing futures is to speak with assurance of a singular future. The speaker will intone: “X will happen in Y years, so prepare!” (Or, more crassly, “Z will happen, so pay me.”) In reality good futures work should be plural, empasizing a range of possibilities. That’s better for thinking and also for the reality of a complex, dynamic, and huge civilization. (That’s why my 3rd book is subtitled The Futures of Higher Education.)
There are some futures methodologies for this, like creating complementary scenarios or using the futures wheel. I think AI can help, at least in the drafting function I mentioned earlier.
For example, I asked Bard: “Please generate two different scenarios of a future where AI significantly impacts geopolitics.” So not just one scenario, nor the most likely one, but two which fork apart. It’s a pretty basic question without any real qualifications or details.
The response:
Sure, here are two different scenarios of a future where AI significantly impacts geopolitics:
Scenario 1: AI-powered arms race
In this scenario, AI is used to develop increasingly sophisticated weapons systems. This leads to an arms race between countries, as each one tries to develop the most advanced AI-powered weapons. This could lead to a more unstable and dangerous world, as countries are more likely to use these weapons against each other.
For example, AI could be used to develop autonomous weapons that can target and kill without human intervention. These weapons would be much more difficult to control than traditional weapons, and they could be used to launch surprise attacks. This could lead to a new type of warfare, where countries are constantly at risk of being attacked by AI-powered weapons.
OK, that’s a good start. It’s a plausible scenario with some chewy details. Bard went on:
Scenario 2: AI-powered diplomacy
In this scenario, AI is used to improve diplomacy between countries. AI could be used to analyze complex data sets and identify potential areas of cooperation between countries. It could also be used to simulate different diplomatic scenarios and help countries find solutions to their disputes.
For example, AI could be used to develop a system that automatically translates between different languages. This would make it easier for diplomats to communicate with each other and reach agreements. AI could also be used to develop a system that tracks the progress of negotiations and identifies potential roadblocks. This would help diplomats to stay on track and reach agreements more quickly.
AI-powered diplomacy: I find this fascinating. Like the previous scenario, it’s short but credible and includes some interesting details.
Bard wasn’t finished, though. It backed away to get, if you’ll forgive the term, meta:
These are just two of the many ways that AI could impact geopolitics in the future. It is important to think about these potential impacts now, so that we can be prepared for the future.
It is also important to note that these are just two possible scenarios. The future of AI is uncertain, and it is possible that other scenarios will play out. However, these two scenarios provide a glimpse into the potential impacts of AI on geopolitics.
That’s an interesting qualification, almost an apology or at least a caution about the results.
Now, we can use that text in various ways. If you’re creating scenarios, these could be drafts or just seeds. If you’re running a workshop, their concision might make for good discussion prompts or group exercises. And we can use them as prompts for other AI tools. Here’s one of Craiyon’s attempts at AI-powered diplomacy:
We can go further than two futures. I’m fond of the scenario quadrant method, which uses two trends extended to extremes to generate four outcomes. Let’s see how Bard does with it.
My prompt: “Please generate four future scenarios about gender, based on different outcomes of two trends: first, increasingly diverse gender norms; second, changing demographics with decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans.”
The response:
Sure, here are four future scenarios about gender, based on different outcomes of two trends: first, increasingly diverse gender norms; second, changing demographics with decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans:
Scenario 1: A world where gender is fluid and inclusive
In this scenario, gender is seen as a spectrum, rather than a binary. This means that people can identify as anywhere on the gender spectrum, from male to female to non-binary. This shift in thinking would lead to a more inclusive society, where people are free to express their gender identity without fear of discrimination.
This scenario is likely to become more common as the demographics of the world become more diverse. For example, the number of people who identify as transgender or non-binary is increasing, and this trend is likely to continue. As more people come to understand that gender is not a binary, the world will become more accepting of people who identify outside of the traditional gender roles.
In addition, the decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans will lead to a smaller and older population. This will mean that there will be fewer people to fill traditional gender roles, such as breadwinner and caregiver. This will force society to become more flexible in its understanding of gender, and it will create more opportunities for people to express their gender identity in ways that are authentic to them.
Scenario 2: A world where gender is still binary, but more flexible
In this scenario, gender is still seen as a binary, but the roles associated with each gender become more flexible. This means that men and women are free to express themselves in ways that were traditionally associated with the opposite gender. For example, men might be more comfortable expressing their emotions, and women might be more comfortable taking on leadership roles.
This scenario is likely to become more common as the world becomes more interconnected. As people from different cultures interact with each other, they will learn about different ways of expressing gender. This will lead to a more flexible understanding of gender, where people are free to express themselves in ways that are authentic to them.
The decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans will also have an impact on this scenario. As the population becomes smaller and older, there will be a greater need for flexibility in the workforce. This will mean that men and women will be able to take on a wider range of roles, regardless of their gender.
Scenario 3: A world where gender is a political issue
In this scenario, gender becomes a major political issue. This could happen if there is a backlash against the changes that are taking place in society. For example, if there is a resurgence of conservative values, then gender could become a battleground between those who want to preserve traditional gender roles and those who want to embrace a more fluid and inclusive society.
This scenario is possible, but it is not inevitable. If we are able to have open and honest conversations about gender, then we can avoid this scenario. However, if we ignore the issue of gender, then it is likely to become a major political issue in the future.
The decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans will also have an impact on this scenario. As the population becomes smaller and older, there will be a greater need for social cohesion. This could lead to a more conservative political climate, which could make it more difficult to make progress on gender equality.
Scenario 4: A world where gender is irrelevant
In this scenario, gender becomes irrelevant. This means that people are not defined by their gender, and they are free to express themselves in ways that are authentic to them. This scenario is possible, but it is unlikely to happen in the near future. Gender is still a very important part of our society, and it will take time for it to become irrelevant.
However, the decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans could make this scenario more likely in the future. As the population becomes smaller and older, there will be less emphasis on traditional gender roles. This could lead to a society where gender is less important, and where people are free to express themselves in ways that are authentic to them.
Then we get the closing qualifiers, again:
These are just four possible scenarios for the future of gender. It is impossible to say for sure what the future holds, but these scenarios provide a glimpse into some of the possibilities.
It is important to note that these scenarios are not mutually exclusive. It is possible that we will see a combination of these scenarios in the future. For example, we could see a society where gender is seen as a spectrum, but where transgender rights are not fully realized.
The future of gender is uncertain, but it is clear that the way we think about gender is changing. As these changes continue, it is important to be aware of the potential implications for society.
I find this scenario quartet very interesting. It’s biased more towards the gender angle than the demographic one. It does set up complementary futures. Again, there’s material to use for writing, workshops, etc. We can feed them into other AI tools. And don’t forget that most AI tools have iteration and versioning features. Here I asked Bard to redo that offering “more profesionally.” Here’s the start:
Scenario 1: A world where gender is fluid and inclusive
In this scenario, gender is seen as a spectrum, rather than a binary. This means that people can identify as anywhere on the gender spectrum, from male to female to non-binary. This shift in thinking would lead to a more inclusive society, where people are free to express their gender identity without fear of discrimination.
This scenario is likely to become more common as the demographics of the world become more diverse. For example, the number of people who identify as transgender or non-binary is increasing, and this trend is likely to continue. As more people come to understand that gender is not a binary, the world will become more accepting of people who identify outside of the traditional gender roles.
The decreasing fertility rates and long lifespans will also have an impact on this scenario. As the population becomes smaller and older, there will be a greater need for flexibility in the workforce. This will mean that men and women will be able to take on a wider range of roles, regardless of their gender.
In this scenario, gender is not seen as a fixed or immutable characteristic. Instead, it is seen as a fluid and dynamic concept that can be expressed in many different ways. This shift in thinking would have a profound impact on society, leading to a more inclusive and accepting world.
I’m interested in what makes that “more professional,” and exploring it could be a good exercise for a writing class. But as an example of, or tool for, futures thinking, you can see how a futurist can start to modify and develop the results.
I can say a lot more about each point, but this is already long, and you’d probably do better (and have more fun) to explore on your own. If folks are interested I can follow up with further discussion on the topic.
Dear readers, have any of you been exploring AI for futures thinking?
Excellent examples.