Generative AI as simulation runner

One underappreciated but nifty use

I often hear academics and non-academics describing generative AI’s main power as producing… stuff. Content-making. In this view tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney are primarily for generating text and images, with audio starting to grow and video on the way. We ask for content and the bots provide.

Which is true, of course, but we can use generative AI for many other purposes. Today I want to introduce one such purpose and demonstrate it with an example: AI as simulation runner.

The idea is that the right prompts can coax ChatGPT into organizing a simulation or scenario exercise. We ask the bot to create and describe a virtual situation, then to build in the user’s actions by asking for them, assessing them, then showing how they transform that simulated situation. The user interacts, influencing the world, which then influences them.

(The nerdier readers might recognize this as the AI serving as a role-playing game’s game master.)

There are many pedagogical reasons for such simulation exercises. A learner can immerse themselves in a situation, approaching it in a different way which always for their agency. A simulation causes no real-world damage, a principle dear to the ancient practice of medical and military simulations. The ability to re-run a sim lets the user try out different strategies. We can analyze sims as models of reality, critiquing them from design or ideological points of view. Learners can create their own simulations, taking constructivist pedagogy even further.

(There are also non-teaching-related reasons to do this, like curiosity or having fun.)

Let me demonstrate with one example. If this interests readers, I’ll show another in a second post.

Heads up: this post will have a lot of text, do to the nature of the exercises. I’ll add some screenshots as best fits the screen plus a few illustrations.

Example: leading a nation in the future

Let’s try a simulation at a large scale in the world of political science and government. Here’s one where the user is in charge of a nation and must lead it into the future.

I started with this very basic prompt:

Simulate an advanced nation over the next 30 years. I will play its leader. You will simulate and describe changes in the world and this nation. Every year you will update me. Every year you will also ask me to respond to events. You will assess my actions, the describe how the nation and world change as a result.

Note that we can add a lot of detail to this initial prompt. Think about assigning a political party to the player, or setting up international alliances and rivalries, or preloading a group of domestic political parties and constituencies. But for now I just went for the basics, and ChatGPT was very happy to oblige:

Let's begin with the simulation of an advanced nation over the next 30 years. We'll start with the current year, 2024. You are the leader of this nation, which we will call "Nation A." Your country is known for its technological advancements, high standard of living, and strong economy.

Year 2024

Nation A Overview:

• Population: 50 million

• GDP: $3 trillion

• Key Industries: Technology, Renewable Energy, Healthcare

• Political System: Democratic Republic

Global Context:

• Climate change remains a critical global issue.

• Rising tensions between major global powers.

• Rapid advancements in AI and biotechnology.

Major Events in Nation A:

1. Economic Growth: The economy grows by 3% this year, driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies and a robust tech sector.

2. Healthcare Advances: A new gene-editing technology developed in Nation A shows promise in curing certain genetic diseases.

3. Climate Initiatives: Nation A commits to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, introducing several new policies and investments in green technologies.

Global Events:

1. Climate Change Agreements: Several nations come together to renew commitments to the Paris Agreement, but disagreements on specifics lead to mixed progress.

2. Technological Race: Major powers are competing in AI and quantum computing advancements, leading to both collaboration and competition.

Decision Point for 2024

As the leader of Nation A, you need to make decisions regarding the following issues:

1. Economic Policy: How will you sustain and potentially increase economic growth? Will you focus on further investment in technology, diversification of industries, or other strategies?

2. Healthcare Funding: Given the breakthrough in gene-editing technology, how will you allocate funding to healthcare research and public health initiatives?

3. Climate Action: How will you ensure Nation A meets its net-zero carbon emissions target? What specific policies or investments will you prioritize?

Please provide your decisions on these issues. Based on your actions, I will assess the outcomes and describe how the nation and the world change over the next year.

Let’s pause to identify just how much appears in this response. The bot made up our country. It gave our nation a putative label, “A,” then added a range of details: technology level, type of government, population size, economic scale, and events. It further embedded glorious “A” into a lightly sketched world with its contextual issues and events. Then ChatGPT set up a detailed prompt for me to respond to, with many points to consider.

Writing in a hurry (on my phone, in a waiting room) I too-quickly replied in the voice of “A”’s maximum leader: “I will invest more in two areas: quantum computing and our new gene editing technology.”

Right away the bot responded by continuing the simulation and working my little response into it:

Year 2025

Nation A Overview:

• Population: 50.3 million

• GDP: $3.1 trillion

• Key Industries: Technology (including Quantum Computing), Renewable Energy, Healthcare (with a focus on Gene Editing)

• Political System: Democratic Republic

Domestic Developments:

1. Economic Growth: The economy grows by 3.3% this year, buoyed by significant investments in quantum computing and gene-editing technology. Startups and established companies in these fields see a surge in innovation and productivity.

2. Healthcare Advances: With increased funding, the gene-editing technology progresses to advanced clinical trials. There is hope for a cure for several genetic disorders within the next few years.

3. Quantum Computing: Nation A becomes a global leader in quantum computing, attracting top talent and fostering groundbreaking research. This positions the nation as a hub for future technological advancements.

Global Context:

1. Climate Change: Global temperatures continue to rise, and extreme weather events become more frequent. While some nations make progress, others lag behind in their commitments.

2. Technological Competition: The race in AI and quantum computing intensifies, with Nation A emerging as a leader. This fosters both international collaboration and strategic competition.

3. Healthcare Innovation: Other nations take note of Nation A's advances in gene-editing technology, leading to increased global cooperation in medical research.

Decision Point for 2025

As the leader of Nation A, you face new challenges and opportunities. Here are the key issues for this year:

1. International Relations: With Nation A leading in quantum computing and healthcare innovation, how will you manage relationships with other major powers? Will you seek collaboration, form alliances, or adopt a competitive stance?

2. Domestic Policy: How will you address the rising cost of living and potential inequalities that may arise from rapid technological advancements? Will you implement policies to ensure equitable access to new technologies and their benefits?

3. Climate Action: Given the ongoing climate challenges, what additional measures will you introduce to accelerate the transition to a green economy and ensure sustainability?

ChatGPT maintained the opening move’s framework, updating population, GDP, technologies, etc. It included my call for gene-editing investment into key industries, national events, and global events. Quantum computing similarly appeared.

In response to the bot’s request for my next actions, I replied: “I will license our gene and quantum technologies at a high price, then use the proceeds to alleviate domestic problems. I will also propose a new, global climate change convention.”

Once again ChatGPT continued the sim, advancing a year:

Year 2026

Nation A Overview:

• Population: 50.6 million

• GDP: $3.3 trillion

• Key Industries: Technology (including Quantum Computing), Renewable Energy, Healthcare (with a focus on Gene Editing)

• Political System: Democratic Republic

Domestic Developments:

1. Economic Impact: Licensing quantum computing and gene-editing technologies at a high price brings significant revenue into the economy. This influx of funds is used to address domestic issues such as rising living costs and inequalities. Subsidies and social programs are expanded to ensure broader access to technological benefits.

2. Healthcare: Advanced gene-editing treatments become more accessible to the population, leading to improved health outcomes and a reduction in the prevalence of genetic disorders.

3. Social Equity: Investments in education, housing, and healthcare help to alleviate social inequalities. Public sentiment is generally positive as citizens see tangible benefits from the government's actions.

Global Context:

1. International Relations: The high pricing of Nation A's technologies leads to some friction with other nations, particularly those with fewer resources. However, wealthier nations and corporations engage eagerly, further boosting Nation A's influence in global technology markets.

2. Climate Change Convention: Nation A's proposal for a new global climate change convention gains traction. The convention aims to set more stringent targets and foster international cooperation. Initial negotiations show promise, with several key nations expressing support.

3. Technological Leadership: Nation A's leadership in quantum computing and gene editing continues to strengthen its position on the global stage. Collaboration with other leading nations and institutions in these fields fosters innovation and economic growth.

Decision Point for 2026

As the leader of Nation A, you now face a set of new challenges and opportunities:

1. Global Inequality: How will you address the growing discontent among less affluent nations regarding the high cost of your technologies? Will you adjust pricing, offer aid, or create new collaboration frameworks?

2. Climate Leadership: With the new climate change convention in initial stages, how will you ensure its success? What specific strategies will you adopt to lead the global effort in combating climate change?

3. Domestic Policy: As the economy grows, how will you ensure sustainable development and prevent potential issues such as over-reliance on a few key industries? Will you diversify the economy or focus on further enhancing existing strengths?

And so on. I played this way for a few rounds. The years passed as I led the great nation of “A” forward to glory.

…then I wanted a change. This is a key feature of prompt engineering, the user’s ability to ask the bot to alter what it’s been producing. I’m surprised by how rarely people take advantage of it.

In my simulation, it seems that the world was too easy. I was able to accomplish things without much pushback.

So I offered this brief prompt: “Please make this simulation more challenging.”

And it did.

DALL-E’s illustration had this legend: “Here is the detailed illustration representing the simulation of Nation A over the span of several years. It captures the key elements and developments, including technological advancements, environmental changes, cultural conservatism, and social dynamics.”

Year 2029

Nation A Overview:

• Population: 51.5 million

• GDP: $3.7 trillion

• Key Industries: Technology (including Quantum Computing), Renewable Energy, Healthcare (with a focus on Gene Editing), Climate Technology

• Political System: Democratic Republic

Domestic Developments:

1. Economic Impact: While the economy continues to grow, reaching $3.7 trillion, rising inflation and a global economic slowdown begin to create challenges. There is increasing pressure to maintain economic stability while continuing to invest in key sectors.

2. Climate Initiatives: The National Climate University and Climate Change Corps face initial success, but funding constraints and political opposition emerge. Balancing long-term goals with immediate economic pressures becomes more challenging.

3. Population Relocation Planning: Preliminary findings indicate that significant areas of Nation A will be affected by rising sea levels and extreme weather. Public anxiety grows, and political factions debate the best course of action.

Global Context:

1. Geopolitical Tensions: Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between major powers, threaten global stability. These tensions spill over into economic and technological arenas, creating potential risks for international collaborations.

2. Climate Change: Despite progress in the climate compact, global carbon emissions continue to rise. Extreme weather events and natural disasters increase in frequency and severity, causing widespread disruption.

3. Technological Competition: The race for technological supremacy intensifies, with major powers investing heavily in AI, quantum computing, and biotechnology. Nation A faces increased competition and the risk of technological espionage.

Decision Point for 2029

As the leader of Nation A, you now face more complex challenges and opportunities:

1. Economic Stability: How will you address the rising inflation and global economic slowdown while continuing to invest in key sectors? Will you implement austerity measures, seek new revenue sources, or pursue other strategies?

2. Political Opposition: With increasing political opposition to climate initiatives and funding constraints, how will you navigate the political landscape to sustain the National Climate University and Climate Change Corps?

3. Geopolitical Tensions: Rising geopolitical tensions threaten international collaborations. How will you manage these tensions to ensure continued cooperation and protect Nation A's technological advancements?

4. Public Anxiety: As the reality of climate-driven relocations becomes apparent, how will you address public anxiety and ensure transparent, effective communication? What specific measures will you take to prepare and protect vulnerable populations?

Please provide your decisions on these issues. Based on your actions, I will assess the outcomes and describe how the nation and the world change over the next year.

Ah, that’s what I was hoping for. Multiple economic problems, growing climate dangers, geopolitical stresses, technological competition, domestic political unhappiness - now it’s more interesting.

In response, I didn’t want to continue in my technocratic-liberal path. I veered off political course to see how ChatGPT would handle this:

I turn my administration to a cultural conservative stance. I call for more religious belief, more nationalism, and greater support for the family. I increase military spending and celebrate military heroes. I ask the legislature to create legislation restricting freedom of speech and assembly.

I could almost see ChatGPT do a double-take and issue a resounding “harrumph.” Right away it integrated by “Make ‘A’ Great Again” program into the world:

Year 2030

Nation A Overview:

• Population: 51.7 million

• GDP: $3.6 trillion (a slight decline due to economic instability)

• Key Industries: Technology, Renewable Energy, Healthcare, Military-Industrial Complex

• Political System: Democratic Republic (with increasing authoritarian tendencies)

Domestic Developments:

1. Economic Impact: The shift towards cultural conservatism and increased military spending strains the economy. While defense industries see growth, other sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy, face reduced investment. Inflation and economic instability continue to be significant issues.

2. Social Climate: The call for more religious belief, nationalism, and family support leads to a divided society. Supporters of the new policies feel empowered, while opponents feel increasingly marginalized. The legislation restricting freedom of speech and assembly passes, leading to protests and civil unrest.

3. Military Focus: Celebrating military heroes and increasing military spending boost national pride among some, but also raise concerns about militarization and the erosion of civil liberties. The military becomes a more prominent part of national identity.

Global Context:

1. Geopolitical Tensions: The increased military focus and nationalist rhetoric heighten geopolitical tensions. Other nations view Nation A's actions with suspicion, leading to a cooling of diplomatic relations and potential isolation.

2. Climate Change: Progress on climate initiatives slows as the administration's focus shifts away from environmental policies. The National Climate University and Climate Change Corps struggle with reduced funding and political support.

3. Technological Competition: Nation A's reduced investment in technology and renewable energy allows other nations to catch up or surpass its advancements. Technological espionage and competition intensify.

Decision Point for 2030

As the leader of Nation A, you face a complex and challenging environment:

1. Economic Strategy: With economic instability and rising inflation, how will you balance military spending with the need to support other key industries and maintain economic stability? Will you adjust your economic policies to address these challenges?

2. Social Unrest: The legislation restricting freedom of speech and assembly has led to significant protests and civil unrest. How will you respond to the growing discontent and ensure social stability?

3. International Relations: Geopolitical tensions are rising, and Nation A faces potential isolation. How will you manage international relations to protect national interests and avoid further escalation?

4. Climate and Technology: With reduced focus on climate initiatives and technological advancement, how will you address the long-term impacts on Nation A's global leadership and environmental goals?

See the many ways my response altered the simulated situation? My grand nation of “A” now has a different government. There are changes to international relations. Social unrest has broken out and polarization is in full swing. How could I handle this crisis largely of my own making?

Let me pause here to reflect on what you just read. (I played into the year 2035 and had a pretty good start on a cult of personality.)

The very basic prompt led to a competent simulation exercise. ChatGPT created and maintained a sketch of a virtual world based on my initial prompt. It analyzed my responses and integrated them into each year’s update. Upon my intervention at a meta-level, the bot altered the sim in a fundamental way but kept things going.

Note that I didn’t specify the world’s parameters nor how the bot should describe them. It came up with the headers and the metrics itself. We could alter that in prompts - i.e., “Describe our armed forces each year,” “Include my favorability rating each year,” “Mention the highlights of pop culture.”

This was a prompt about politics, but it might work for other domains. I’ve had fun asking ChatGPT to simulate audiences I’ve worked with professionally, classes I could conceivably teach, and daily life in several historical situations. Imagine using this for scientific simulations.

Once again, my prompts were very short and basic. Think about the many ways we could run this exercise in different ways: specifying a real nation, adding all kinds of details, setting the difficulty level, fleshing out characters. I leave it to the reader to try their own experiments. Readers may also want to compare how other AI applications work with simulation prompts. You are welcome to copy mine for a start.

Is this a useful or interesting exercise? I can follow up with a different sim.