RE: national v transnational AI. I agree the future is more compartmentalized than the commercial vendors might prefer. I suspect the end state is something like early EC federation, where transnational AIs dip into national AIs as needed to answer transnational questions. Nations own and monetize the national AIs; the transnational vendors own and monetize the transnational--and possibly provide services for monetizing the national AIs.
In addition to the political-economic forces pushing toward such an outcome (how can the EU not federate?), from an engineering perspective one would expect this to improve results over either the national or transnational approach alone. MSGoogleMetaInc. would be fools not to anticipate and build the infrastructure for such, and compete to provide that infrastructure to the national AI builders
G7 attempts to regulate efforts to build military AIs in other nations are going to be interesting to watch. Nations will surely keep military and other 'sensitive' data out of the federation or in siloed federations of their own (e.g., NATO), but there are powerful incentives for most nations to play, to varying degrees and with varying constraints, for commercial and social purposes. Note that federation gives nations wanting to clamp down a built-in choke-point by means of which to meter domestic and international interactions to conform to their preferences ("information mercantilism"). Most will see that as a feature, not a bug.
We might fall short and end up with two or three competing federations reflecting geopolitical alignments, but for at least some purposes, until and unless diplomatic and trading relationships break down completely (and perhaps even then), the federation is likely to be global. I could see many possible twists and turns along the way, and predicting intermediate states and sequences will be very tricky, but a final outcome looking something like this, 15-25 years from now, is where I'd put my money.
Side-note: the biggest threat to the national-AI scenario may be sub-national and ideological AI. Once fragmentation starts, it's hard to stop. There are currently US state governors and their parties, as well as political parties in almost every nation, who would be excited at the possibilities for thought control inherent in subnational AI. Ideologically, just imagine what a transnational FoxAI could do to strengthen political biases and bubbles, domestically and transnationally. #confirmationbAIas
RE: national v transnational AI. I agree the future is more compartmentalized than the commercial vendors might prefer. I suspect the end state is something like early EC federation, where transnational AIs dip into national AIs as needed to answer transnational questions. Nations own and monetize the national AIs; the transnational vendors own and monetize the transnational--and possibly provide services for monetizing the national AIs.
In addition to the political-economic forces pushing toward such an outcome (how can the EU not federate?), from an engineering perspective one would expect this to improve results over either the national or transnational approach alone. MSGoogleMetaInc. would be fools not to anticipate and build the infrastructure for such, and compete to provide that infrastructure to the national AI builders
G7 attempts to regulate efforts to build military AIs in other nations are going to be interesting to watch. Nations will surely keep military and other 'sensitive' data out of the federation or in siloed federations of their own (e.g., NATO), but there are powerful incentives for most nations to play, to varying degrees and with varying constraints, for commercial and social purposes. Note that federation gives nations wanting to clamp down a built-in choke-point by means of which to meter domestic and international interactions to conform to their preferences ("information mercantilism"). Most will see that as a feature, not a bug.
We might fall short and end up with two or three competing federations reflecting geopolitical alignments, but for at least some purposes, until and unless diplomatic and trading relationships break down completely (and perhaps even then), the federation is likely to be global. I could see many possible twists and turns along the way, and predicting intermediate states and sequences will be very tricky, but a final outcome looking something like this, 15-25 years from now, is where I'd put my money.
Side-note: the biggest threat to the national-AI scenario may be sub-national and ideological AI. Once fragmentation starts, it's hard to stop. There are currently US state governors and their parties, as well as political parties in almost every nation, who would be excited at the possibilities for thought control inherent in subnational AI. Ideologically, just imagine what a transnational FoxAI could do to strengthen political biases and bubbles, domestically and transnationally. #confirmationbAIas
So: My virtually sovereign god-intelligence will beat yours any day now.
Take Ukraine for starters.
Global hybrid war, however, requires $7 Trillion just to play at the high-stakes table this decade.