Most timely article, Bryan. Ted Gioia recently posted similar thoughts...
"As you can see, a real tech breakthrough grows at a ridiculously rapid pace in its early days. Look at how fast people adopted radio or the smartphone or electricity. And these required huge investments by consumers.
But they’re giving AI away for free at Bing—and it’s not growing at all.
This is not how consumers respond to transformative technology. The current demand pattern resembles, instead, what we would call a fad or craze.
Unusual piece Bryan but well worth the read. One major factual error. OpenAI is a Not for Profit and is not owned by Microsoft. The have a deal with Microsoft which is non0exclusive and use them for infrastructure through Azure. ChatGPT losing users to 1.5 billion is explained by not only the API but other products - Claude, Bard etc. Also, Facebook, and other large tech companies do release Opensource AI e.g. facebook and LLama. The idea that this will fade into insignificance seems bizarre to me for all hte resons outlined in the Shindig session... but good piece.
Powerful and interesting article. Thank you for your work on this Bryan. I think it is very important that we think things through and consider all possibilities so as to be ready. Yet in my analysis of all of these aspects I do not believe it is even possible for AI to go away in any major way. Both its adoption and utilization has been record setting. It saves times which translates to saving money so businesses will not let it go. In the same way it greatly enhances people's (students, instructors, all people's) ability so they will not let it go either. I fully believe the decline seen for ChatGPT has been due to the summer break from school and the increase use of API's within organizations.
I totally do agree though that environmental concerns and regulations need to be addressed, but there simply is no putting the genie of AI back into the bottle. AI is part of the 4th industrial revolution and will continue to propel us into the future.
Regarding the economics of the industry, this report is eye-opening...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/28/scale-ai-remotasks-philippines-artificial-intelligence/
Most timely article, Bryan. Ted Gioia recently posted similar thoughts...
"As you can see, a real tech breakthrough grows at a ridiculously rapid pace in its early days. Look at how fast people adopted radio or the smartphone or electricity. And these required huge investments by consumers.
But they’re giving AI away for free at Bing—and it’s not growing at all.
This is not how consumers respond to transformative technology. The current demand pattern resembles, instead, what we would call a fad or craze.
And this is just one warning sign among many."
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/ugly-numbers-from-microsoft-and-chatgpt
Thanks for your post! And I agree with the points that Brent and Don made. Here’s an interesting take that makes sense to me. https://open.substack.com/pub/synthedia/p/the-imminent-death-of-chatgpt-and
Unusual piece Bryan but well worth the read. One major factual error. OpenAI is a Not for Profit and is not owned by Microsoft. The have a deal with Microsoft which is non0exclusive and use them for infrastructure through Azure. ChatGPT losing users to 1.5 billion is explained by not only the API but other products - Claude, Bard etc. Also, Facebook, and other large tech companies do release Opensource AI e.g. facebook and LLama. The idea that this will fade into insignificance seems bizarre to me for all hte resons outlined in the Shindig session... but good piece.
Powerful and interesting article. Thank you for your work on this Bryan. I think it is very important that we think things through and consider all possibilities so as to be ready. Yet in my analysis of all of these aspects I do not believe it is even possible for AI to go away in any major way. Both its adoption and utilization has been record setting. It saves times which translates to saving money so businesses will not let it go. In the same way it greatly enhances people's (students, instructors, all people's) ability so they will not let it go either. I fully believe the decline seen for ChatGPT has been due to the summer break from school and the increase use of API's within organizations.
I totally do agree though that environmental concerns and regulations need to be addressed, but there simply is no putting the genie of AI back into the bottle. AI is part of the 4th industrial revolution and will continue to propel us into the future.